guardian.co.uk,
Justin McCurry in Tokyo, Thursday 3 May 2012
 |
| Anti-nuclear protesters gather outside Shinjuku station, Tokyo. Photograph: Getty Images |
This
weekend Japan will begin a bold experiment in energy use that no one had
thought possible – until the Fukushima Daiichi power plant suffered a triple
meltdown just over a year ago.
On
Saturday, when the Hokkaido electric power company shuts down the No3 reactor
at its Tomari plant for maintenance, the world's third-largest economy will be
without a single working nuclear reactor for the first time for almost 50
years.
The closure
of the last of Japan's 54 reactors marks a dramatic shift in energy policy, but
while campaigners prepare to celebrate, the nationwide nuclear blackout comes
with significant economic and environmental risks attached.
The crisis
at Fukushima sparked by last year's deadly earthquake and tsunami forced Japan
into a fundamental rethink of its relationship with nuclear power.
The Tomari
shutdown come as the Japan braces itself for a long, humid summer that will
have tens of millions of people reaching for the controls of their air
conditioners, raising the risk of power cuts and yet more disruption for the
country's ailing manufacturers.
In a report
released this week, the government's national policy unit projected a 5% power
shortage for Tokyo, while power companies predict a 16% power shortfall in
western Japan, which includes the major industrial city of Osaka.
"I
have to say we are facing the risk of a very severe electricity shortage,"
the economy, trade and industry minister, Yukio Edano, said, adding that the
extra cost of importing fuel for use in thermal power stations could be passed
on to individual consumers though higher electricity bills.
Before the
11 March disaster, Japan relied on nuclear power for about 30% of its
electricity, and there were plans to increase its share to more than 50% by
2030 with the construction of new reactors.
The release
of huge quantities of radiation into the air and sea, the contamination of the
food and water supply and the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents mean
that vision of a nuclear-dominant, low-carbon future lies in ruins.
Over the
past 14 months, dozens of nuclear reactors not directly affected by the tsunami
have gone offline to undergo regular maintenance and safety checks, while
utilities have turned to coal, oil and gas-fired power plants to keep industry
and households supplied with electricity – imports that contribute to Japan's
first trade deficit for more than 30 years last year.
Japan,
already the world's biggest importer of liquefied natural gas, bought record
amounts of LNG last year to replace nuclear. The international energy agency
estimates the closure of all nuclear plants will increase Japanese demand for
oil to 4.5m barrels a day, at an additional cost of about US$100m a day.
Last-ditch
attempts by the prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda, to win support for the early
restart of two reactors at Oi power plant in western Japan have failed amid a
hardening of public opposition to nuclear power.
None of
Japan's idle reactors will be permitted to go back online until they pass
stringent "stress tests" – simulations designed to test their ability
to withstand catastrophic events such as the 14-metre tsunami that knocked out
Fukushima Daiichi's backup power supply, and sparked the world's worst nuclear
accident since Chernobyl.
While some experts have criticised the two-stage stress tests as inadequate, an immediate
return to even a limited amount of nuclear power now seems impossible.
Residents'
approval isn't legally required for restarts, but Noda is unlikely to risk the
possible political fallout from ignoring local opinion: in a recent poll by Kyodo News, 59.5% are opposed to restarting the Oi nuclear power plant in Fukui
prefecture, while 26.7% support it.
Leading the
push to restart the reactors is Keidanren, Japan's influential business lobby.
In a recent survey, 71% of manufacturers said power shortages could force them
to cut production, while 96% said that the additional spectre of higher
electricity bills would hit earnings. The Japan Institute for Energy Economics
has warned that keeping nuclear reactors mothballed could limit GDP growth to
just 0.1% this year, as manufacturers cut back production while paying higher
prices for crude.
Critics of
the nuclear shutdown have also highlighted the impact more fossil fuel power
generation will have on Japan's climate change commitments. Even big investors
in renewables, such as the Softbank chief executive Masayoshi Son, concede it will take time for them to have any real impact on the country's energy mix.
They will
be buoyed by a new environment ministry panel's assertion that Japan can still
reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2030 from 1990 levels without
nuclear, through energy saving and the quicker adoption of renewables, which it
hopes will account for between 25% and 35% of total power generation by 2030.
"If
Japan has the motivation, it can do this, too," said Sei Kato, deputy
director of the environment ministry's low carbon society promotion office.
"We have the technological know-how."
Short-term
risks aside, environmental groups say Saturday's shutdown is an unprecedented
opportunity for Japan to wean itself off nuclear power.
"This
is a turning point for Japan, and a huge opportunity for it to move towards the
sustainable energy future its people demand," Greenpeace said in its advanced energy revolution report. "With an abundance of renewable energy
resources and top-class technology, Japan can easily become a renewable energy
leader, while simultaneously ending its reliance on risky and expensive nuclear
technology."
On Tuesday,
office workers made their contribution with the start, one month earlier than
usual, of the annual "cool biz" drive to reduce energy use. But
swapping suits and ties for short-sleeved shirts, and turning down air
conditioners will be easy for as long as Japan enjoys mild spring temperatures.
The biggest test of their post-Fukushima resolve has yet to come.
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