guardian.co.uk,
Fiona Harvey in Durban, Wednesday 7 December 2011
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COP17 in Durban: Lord Nicholas Stern, UNFCCC executive secretary Christiana Figueres, COP president Maite Nkoana-Mashabane and John Hay, UNFCCC secretariat. Photograph: IISD |
If rich
nations were to stop subsidising fossil fuels to the tune of billions of
dollars a year, the money raised could go a substantial way to providing the
cash needed to help poor countries develop a "green" economy and cope
with the effects of climate change, one of the world's leading economists said.
Lord
Nicholas Stern, former World Bank chief economist and author of the landmark
report for the previous Labour government on the costs of climate change, told
the Guardian that rich economies waste money and disadvantage renewable energy
by giving away tax breaks, loans and other subsidies to the fossil fuel
industry. If governments were to cut these out, and dedicate the savings to
helping poor countries, that could raise about $10bn a year towards helping the
poor on climate change.
Developed
countries have already committed to help poor countries in this way, pledging
$100bn a year by 2020, most of which would be channelled through a fund called
the "green climate fund", which is the subject of intense debate at
the two-week United Nations climate talks in Durban.
But Stern
pointed out that the discussions at Durban have focused overwhelmingly on the
technicalities of how a fund should be set up. There has been very little
discussion on how the sums needed can be raised, although within eight years at
least $100bn annually must be channelled to developing countries if existing
commitments are to be fulfilled.
Rich
nations need to focus urgently on how to raise the money needed, he said.
In addition
to cutting out fossil fuel subsidies, Lord Stern said, developed countries
could raise the remainder needed from carbon taxes, the auction of permits to
emit carbon, levies on international transport and loans from international
development banks would all be needed. The sums involved would be affordable if
countries put the right policies in place, he said.
"It is
all eminently doable. We have set out in detail our estimates and the policies
that could achieve them – if governments show the political will," he
said.
A tax on
carbon of $25 a tonne in developed countries could raise as much as $50bn a
year for the fund, while a tax on aviation and shipping emissions could raise
$10bn even if countries retained half the revenues for themselves. Stern
suggested this should be an attractive idea to cash-strapped government
Treasuries. If loans from development banks are added, this could be enough to
meet the $100bn a year target.
But the
true benefits would be much larger – Stern calculated that these policies, and
carbon trading, should be enough to stimulate an additional $200bn to $250bn
from the private sector.
The
estimates are contained in a report by Lord Stern and Mattia Romani of the
Grantham Institute at the London School of Economics.
Discussions
on the green fund were "going pretty well" at Durban, said Todd
Stern, the US special envoy for climate change. Other countries were also
optimistic on Wednesday that the fund could be launched at the Durban meeting,
which would help to release billions in funding for poor countries, to be spent
on ways of cutting emissions – for instance through renewable energy – and
adapting to the effects of global warming.
If the
green fund is launched, it may be the one clear success of the conference.
Talks on the other main issues – the future of the Kyoto protocol and the
potential for a new global treaty on the climate – were crawling at a snail's
pace.
The EU
reiterated its demand for other countries to join it in pressing for a new
international legally binding treaty, to be signed in 2015 or 2016, and to come
into force in 2020. Only if some other major economies, such as China or the
US, sign up to this "roadmap" will the EU agree to continue the Kyoto
protocol after its first "commitment period" expires in 2012. So far,
none have done so and some developing countries are insisting the EU should go
it alone with a continuation of the Kyoto protocol.
Connie
Hedegaard, EU climate chief, said: "There are not many hours left – we
want to encourage the big emitters to come forward with more clarity on their
real positions."
Chris
Huhne, the UK climate and energy secretary, said the EU would not go it alone
because, together with a handful of smaller developed countries such as Norway
and Switzerland that have also agreed to continue Kyoto, it makes up only 15%
of global emissions. "It is absolutely essential that we have real
commitments to the roadmap [from other countries]."
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