The winters of the past two years have been noticeably colder. The northern hemisphere in particular has experienced record cold, record snow and a rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice extent. The southern hemisphere this winter has also seen record low temperatures in South America which is resulting in many hundreds of deaths (human and livestock).
There are a number of players involved which can be attributed to this cooling trend and when they come together they are capable of dropping the world's temperatures by a significant amount.
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| Above image courtesy of Don Easterbrook, click on image for link. |
Perhaps the most important player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is a hot and cold ocean temperature cycle in the Pacific of about 30 years. The world's temperature trend very closely matches this cycle which has the potential to override solar activity of the day. The last major PDO cooling event was between 1946 and 1976 which experienced the highest solar cycle on record (SC19) followed by a low cycle (SC20). The deepest cold of this era was recorded when both the PDO and low solar activity teamed up, which is right where we are again today with perhaps a greater influence from the solar side with my predicted imminent grand minimum.
New research is suggesting the solar influence on climate/weather is not just about the overall heat output of the Sun which varies very little, but more about the atmospheric effects from extreme ultraviolet radiation (EUV). EUV can vary by as much as 16% over the solar cycle and this last solar minimum has seen the levels a lot lower than the previous solar minimum. EUV does it's thing in the upper atmosphere where it heats the Thermosphere and also creates Ozone, currently NASA is reporting the lowest recorded height of the Thermosphere and is at a loss at explaining all of the contributing factors. Others like Mike Lockwood are linking lower UV rates with changes in the polar jet streams that form a blocking effect on the normally warmer winds that occur in the northern hemisphere winter.
The La Nina phase is now official with the Australian BOM records showing all the major indicators heading into continued La Nina conditions. Of particular interest is the sub surface temperatures in the Pacific showing a large area 4 deg C under normal.
The cooling phase of the PDO is just beginning and should reduce the strength and frequency of future El Ninos and add extra punch and frequency to upcoming La Ninas.
Joe Bastardi from Accuweather who is an avid follower of this site is also predicting the same cooling trend, he also adds the possible cooling effects that could result from impending volcanic eruptions.
So the stage is set for one of the most interesting natural experiments, nearly all the cool players are in place with the exception of the Atlantic Oscillation still not in its cool phase. I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the current oceanic conditions the next northern winter will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850).
The test is in place...will the so called "greenhouse effect" brought about by man made CO2 have any bearing on the upcoming northern hemisphere winter?
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Layers of Earth's upper atmosphere. (Credit: John Emmert/NRL. - Larger Image)
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