- Analysis - IPCC takes heat in climate controversy
Yvo de Boer is leaving his job as UN climate chief. "It will be another two years before we will have a climate treaty."
Most pieces of the failed climate summit in Copenhagen have yet to be picked up. Climate scientists in different countries are being questioned in parliamentary hearings to clear the impression that they have glossed over inconvenient facts - as might be deduced from e-mails hacked from the British University of East Anglia. Meanwhile, the IPCC, the United Nations' climate panel, has acknowledged mistakes in its reports - minor mistakes, but important enough to scrutinise its own procedures.
Amidst all this controversy, Yvo de Boer announced last month he will resign as the executive secretary of the UN's climate bureau to start working for accounting firm KPMG. This was another blow to international climate negotiations. If even De Boer no longer has faith in a climate agreement, who does?
One month after he handed in his resignation, De Boer (55) told NRC Handelsblad his departure had nothing to do with the difficult negotiations. "A job at KPMG is not something I decided on under the Christmas tree in the four weeks after the Copenhagen summit. I was in the making before that," De Boer said. "Of course I wondered whether this would be a good time to leave. But there is never a good moment. The negotiations are ongoing, but they have are of a different nature. I think it will be another two years before we will have a climate treaty.”
Sell the green growth story
De Boer takes the uproar over the blunders in the IPCC's report very seriously. "The support for climate policies has suffered some serious damage," he said. "But the average citizen doesn't realise that criticism is only aimed at the symptoms and not at the diagnosis. Both the story of themelting glaciers in the Himalayas, and that of African agriculture [the IPCC failed to include nuances to its claim agricultural production in some North African countries would decrease by up to 50 percent by 2020], do not challenge the concept of climate change itself, only the speed at which it is taking place."
The climate czar believes it is important for politicians and scientists alike to restore the confidence in the underpinnings of the policies. He welcomes the independent investigation announced by the IPCC. "In the end, people only become involved if they are really convinced this is better for them. Not just ecologically, but economically as well. If you can't credibly sell the green growth story, you might as well shut up," De Boer said.
"Recently, I spoke to the Indian environment minister. He told me: 'The people who have voted for me aren't worried about climate change, they are worried about where their next meal is coming from.' Only when those people realise that climate change is the reason their next meal isn't coming, or much later, or is more expensive, will they rally behind climate policies."
What can we earn by it?
More and more, science is taking a back seat in climate negotiations. "Even if we were to find out tomorrow that the entire IPCC report is a lie, that wouldn't change China's economic strategy," De Boer said. "A country like China can't continue to have an economic growth of 6 to 8 percent with its current model. This is why China is now the world's largest investor in solar energy, why they are working hard on wind energy and closing tens of thousands of factories that are inefficient. China hasn’t banned the production of Hummers because the SUVs are ugly - which they undoubtedly are - but because they don't want those horrible things on the Chinese roads."
De Boer wants the 'polluter pays' model to be replaced by a 'polluter loses' principle. "The question no longer is: ‘what will it cost us?’ but ‘what can we earn by it?’" De Boer said.
In that regard, De Boer said, the climate summit in Copenhagen was a success. Rich countries proved willing to reduce their emissions by 80 percent before 2050. "That cannot be attained through a little more efficiency, a little energy reduction and a road tax. It implies a fundamental shift. I feel we have embarked on that route, even if insecurity over energy supply played a bigger role than climate awareness. Deny climate change as a myth, for all I care, but look at energy prices, energy security and clean air."
Summits, treaties and protocols
- UN climate chief Yvo de Boer believes no climate treaty can be reached until the 2011 summit in South Africa. Until then, his successor will have to organise talks about the continuation of the 1997 Kyoto protocol. Last year's Copenhagen agreement is no more than "a timetable" for a new international treaty, De Boer said.
- About the lack of willingness to come to a treaty in Copenhagen, De Boer said: "Developing countries proposed a number of preconditions. They demanded the leadership of industrialised countries and financial support for implementing climate policies. They only wanted to enter into obligations that would not obstruct economic growth. In their reasoning, rich countries had their opportunity to become rich and have now discovered climate as a way to keep other countries poor. "
- Although the Kyoto protocolis "a huge failure in its environmental performance" it deserves a prize for its design: an excellent set of rules about reporting on climate policies, on funding for developing countries, and on measurements of projects and international cooperation. But the effect of those rules in policy has not been successful. This has made developing countries suspicious of a new climate treaty, according to De Boer.
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